Russia itself is still the most powerful neighbor for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, but increasingly it is one of many. Ethnic Russians comprise no more than two or three percent of the population of the three countries. Russian television viewership has declined precipitately. Russian language use is declining (two thirds of Azerbaijanis now report only basic knowledge of the language). While updating the new edition of my book, The Caucasus: An Introduction, with a new chapter after almost a decade, one theme stood out: the legacy of the Soviet Union is gradually leaving the region, along with the influence of Russia. Other post-Soviet states, however, should be capable of more cool reflection.Ĭonsider the South Caucasus. That is hard to do for Ukrainians, whose compatriots are still dying on the front line in the east of the country. But it’s worth taking a step back, separating news from longer-term trends, and doing a quick audit of Russia’s capabilities and ambitions in its neighborhood vis-à-vis those of the other states.
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